Greece was just a prelude. As I have been saying for years, and repeating every few months, the Euro is a mess and getting messier. Greece's economy is minuscule compared to big countries like Italy. When Greece has problems the world is concerned. When Italy has problems, the world shivers with fright.
Greece's economy, according to official EU stats, is around 2.5% of the
Eurozone, or 1.8% of the EU member states. Italy sports the world's 8
th largest economy, 17% of the
Eurozone, or nearly 13% of all of Europe. You can play around with the numbers yourself at
Eurostat, the home of European statistics. The specific numbers that I used are available
here. If you are an American or a former American think that Greece is like Rhode Island, and Italy is like California.
Greece and Italy will have new governments. Both countries are offering
economists in an effort to calm the world. I won't pretend like I know who these people are, I only know what I know from the press. Italy's Monti looks like exactly the type of Eurocrat that got us into this mess to begin with. His main accomplishment in life was in developing and strengthening the Euro and in suing Microsoft. As I write these lines he is preparing to introduce his first lot of reforms to the Italian Senate. The yield on Italian bonds just went back up over 7%, meaning the markets have little faith in his success.
Greece's new man is Lucas Papademos, another
economist who features great accomplishments such as being Greece's version of Stanley Fischer and a proud vice-president of the European Central Bank. [Meanwhile Greek students continue to violently protest. They ask for "Bread, Education and Freedom". I don't know if this translates well. I think they mean "freedom from" as in freedom from responsibility, working, etc., rather than "freedom to" such as freedom to work, freedom to prosper, freedom to disagree with the leftist mob, etc.]
These guys have come to bury Europe, not save it. Who got them into their mess? What did their central bankers do while Europe spent the next two generation's income? If these are the guys who are going to save the Euro, I say jump ship as soon as possible.
Let's say you have an Israeli mortgage which is indexed to the US$. At this point I really can't guess what is going to happen in the short term with the shekel-dollar exchange rate. My feeling is that the dollar will rise slightly only because the Euro is crazy and the dollar is regaining its luster as the coin of reserve. If you have income in dollars, I would probably leave my mortgage indexed to dollars because of uncertainty. Most other people should consider refinancing into mainly shekel based loans.
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Italian olive oil. Olives are the sleeper
statistic that we should be watching. |
But what do you do if you live in Europe, are a proud member of the Tribe, and are concerned about the solvency of your Euros? Can we protect your savings?
All members of the Tribe should have a home in The Land, and we pray that they will have the courage to eventually live here full time. A lot of our brethren from European Babylon have already purchased a home in The Land, most of them paying cash. Most of these homes are currently worth a whole lot more Euros then they were when purchased.
Here is my suggestion: buy additional properties in Israel. Transfer some money to Israel, or you can even mortgage a property that you already own here. For most properties, the payments on a 50% loan-to-value mortgage can be covered by a typical rent.
We have a huge variety of mortgage types available that will help protect your investment and balance out market uncertainties.
Don't try to protect your money by just buying a flat in Israel. Protect your money by buying two! Buy each of them with a 50% mortgage which will be paid by the incoming rent. Not only will you be protecting your money, you will be preparing for your future. Once you eventually come Up to The Land, the additional flat will provide you regular shekel income, a place for your kids to come live.
Every case is different, and you should always consult your qualified
Israeli Mortgage Advisor.